When I heard that Mayor Jerry Sanders and Chargers President Dean Spanos were in serious talks about the possibility of a new stadium located in downtown San Diego, I was THRILLED by the prospect. No offense to the city of Escondido who have been courting the Chargers to move their team there for a quite few years now. It’s just that the Chargers are not Escondido or Chula Vista, and most certainly, not Los Angeles. They are San Diego!

For anyone who has been to Qualcomm Stadium, you fall in to one of two categories:  One type of person believes Qualcomm is an ill-designed cracking slab of concrete with narrow walkways and a cold, uninviting aura. The other type of person is one who has never been to another NFL Stadium to see just how big of a difference a nice stadium can be.  In fact, as far as I’m concerned, Qualcomm and Candlestick in San Francisco are on par with one another and both should be torn down. The Spanos know this and understand this, which is why they want to build a new stadium. But the fact that the city and its taxpayers don’t want to help pay for a new stadium, is the biggest hurdle the Chargers face.

Just because the taxpayers don’t want to help out however, does not mean they are not supportive of Mayor Sanders who is working with Dean Spanos to figure out where the money to build a new stadium can come from. According to Matthew T. Hall of the Union Tribune, one financing option that is being thrown around could come from “selling or developing the city-owned 166-acre Qualcomm Stadium site, which the team would leave vacant.” This is an option where the city can help out without a tax hike. It also brings to light the fact that Qualcomm’s site is HUGE and the proposed site downtown would be much smaller.

The downtown site would be 15 acres directly next to Petco Park that currently includes the city-owned Tailgate Park, the Wonderbread Building, and the bus yard for the San Diego Transit Corp. The beauty of this site, is that the infrastructure is all in place thanks to Petco Park. There’s parking, public transportation set up, and a slew of bars and restaurants in the area that make a killing on game days.  In addition, Hall reports that Charger’s special counsel Mark Fabiani says the downtown stadium makes financial sense “because infrastructure improvements to accommodate a stadium of up to $1 billion elsewhere could cost $200 million, but they are a fraction of that downtown”.

Of course there are naysayers who don’t want to see a stadium go up downtown. Business owners that would have to move, nearby residents who don’t want a huge construction project going on in their neighborhood or the influx of crowds that would be present on game-days.  But I am not going to address such people or such issues, for this is an unapologetically biased blog in favor of a downtown stadium.

Yes, there are hurdles to overcome before this dream can become a reality, mostly of the financial kind. But the city needs this. It needs something it can rally around. Something to be proud of besides the weather, and a beautiful new stadium in the city’s up and coming downtown is just what the doctor ordered.  And can you imagine how much money a Super Bowl hosted downtown would bring into the city?  But all the benefits of a new stadium are light years away. At this point it’s just good to see that San Diego is once again the front-runner for the new home of the San Diego Chargers.

According to Sign On San Diego’s Roger Showley, the Urban Land Institute released its “Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2010” report last week.  On the report’s 9-point scale, San Diego’s real estate market is predicted to improve to 5, a whopping one tenth of a point above 2009’s ranking. What does this mean? Not much really, but it does mean that things certainly are not getting worse.

As we all know, San Diego’s residential sector took an enormous hit dropping from a median home price of $517,500 in 2005, to a much more realistic $325,000. An now, with the residential market coming around, so too will other real estate sectors. Showley reports that Jonathan Miller, a consultant for PricewaterhouseCoopers, who wrote the “Emerging Trends” report said “San Diego is improving because its housing market, having declined earlier than markets in most places, has “stabilized” and is thus setting the stage for nonresidential properties to recover.” “Setting the stage” doesn’t mean nonresidential properties WILL recover in 2010, but I don’t think anyone is going to complain about a stabilizing market that brings with it the hope of once again having flourishing real estate market, even if it is still a ways off. 

What else did the reports say?

“For 2010, the market is a pure hold’ meaning investors should retain their properties and not rush to buy or sell.”

“Shopping center owners should ‘hang on for dear life’ as retailers struggle with falling sales and many vacate their premises.”

“Office-building landlords should expect a game of ‘tenant musical chairs’ as lessees seek the best deals.”

“Hotels can’t get any worse but will ‘lead the commercial real estate industry in recovery’ as the economy improves.”

As for San Diego, even a miniscule glint of improvement on the real estate front is a sign of hope. Jonathon Miller adds, “the point is San Diego, unlike some other markets, has taken a tough hit here, but it appears to be stabilizing, and that’s better than other markets around the country.”  It’s funny to think that just a few years ago “appreciation” was the word that was being used. Appreciation was expected and relied upon, and taken for granted. And now, with our heads in our hands and hopefully a little wiser, appreciation is a distant memory. Now, the word “Stabilizing” holds a similar connotation that “appreciation” once had.

If you missed your chance to reap the benefits of the first-time homebuyer tax credit this past year, you will get one more shot.  The Senate passed a bill on Thursday 98 to 0 that will extend the original first time homebuyer tax credit for another seven months and expand the bill to benefit some current homeowners looking to buy a new home. The bill should reach the House floor by next Thursday and then require the signature of the President.

So what does this new bill consist of? Well, for starters, contrary to many of the proposed bills, this bill does not increase the amount of tax credit. It remains $8000 for first time homebuyers. However this time around, if you are currently a homeowner that has owned your home for at least five consecutive years, you are eligible to receive a $6500 tax credit if you buy a new primary home. In other words, if you are buying a 2^nd home you will not get a tax credit, but if you looking to move and buy a new primary residence, you might be eligible.

Who is eligible? Obviously first time homebuyers, and as previously mentioned, folks that have owned a home for at least five consecutive years. But the bill limits the purchase price of the home to $800,000 and there are income caps, which disqualify any individual who makes more that $125,000 annually and couples who make more than $225,000. In addition, this tax credit offer won’t last as long the second time around. One must sign a contract by April 30 2010, and close on the home by June 30^th to qualify. And if you think they will probably end up extending the offer even further, think again.

According to Dina ElBoghdady of the Washington Post reported that Sen. Johnny Isakson (R-GA), “a longtime advocate of the tax credit, praised passage of the bill in his chamber but said the extension would be the last one. “Tax credits like this only work by creating the sense of urgency to take advantage of them”.  So if you are considering buying a home and are eligible for the tax credit, you better get a move on.

But will this extension of the tax credit really stimulate more home sales? Stephen Ohlemacher of the Associated Press reported that there are those like Senator Kit Bond (R-MO) who question its effectiveness. “For the vast majority of cases, the homebuyer tax credit amounted to a free gift since it did not affect their decision to purchase a home,” Bond said. “And for the small minority of buyers whose decision was directly caused by the credit, this raises the question of whether we are subsidizing buyers who may not have been able to afford buying a home in the first place”.  Though there may be plenty of truth to that statement, it seems that at this point there is nothing else that can be done to at least try and stimulate home buying. And the 98-0 vote in favor of the bill confirms that our Senators don’t think there is anything else that can be done either.

Some may consider this good news, for others it doesn’t help their employment status. Either way, the unemployment number in San Diego County dropped to 10.2% in September from 10.6% in August.  In fact, it’s not just San Diego that’s registered a drop in unemployment rates – it’s the whole State of California with a 12.2% rating in September, decreasing from 12.3% in August.

Let’s try and see what this means.  First, there are some economists who warned that it’s not such a good idea to put too much stock in these figures because they were sourced from a government-conducted telephone survey of households, which is generally, a less accurate way of getting the information.  It’s more logical to rely on payroll numbers which are based on data coming from a broad sampling of employers.  Others believe, however, that a drop (even something this small) is still a good sign because at least, there’s minor movement in the right direction.  It is also very possible that this slight drop is an indication that massive layoffs are beginning to taper off and slow down. 

However, even if unemployment rates are going down, it doesn’t necessarily mean that new jobs will be easy to find.  Experts are even speculating that the slowdown in unemployment rates means that the once-jobless have now found part-time jobs or jobs that don’t involve payroll, like consulting jobs for instance.  Some may even have opted out of being part of the workforce for the meantime, in their frustration from trying to find a job.  Others may have decided to return to school or enrolled in training courses to boost their resumes once the job market picks up. 

The retail and services sectors are primarily two of the segments in the employment market where there are new jobs being offered.  Retailers are being positive about sales and intend on providing good service to their customers, hence the new hires.

What does this mean if you’re thinking of purchasing real estate? Real estate prices are often driven by unemployment rates. If we’ve reached the ceiling or close to it for unemployment then it is safe to say we are at the bottom or close to the bottom of the real estate market. Prices can only drop so much while unemployment rises. Once employment starts to stabilize, you will see the real estate market start to bounce back. It may not bounce back quickly but it will come back. Try to take advantage of the San Diego real estate market.

There was a comment to the previous article earlier this week that mentioned she and her husband were planning on waiting about a year for home prices to drop even further before considering buying a home. Not a bad plan by any means considering the fact that many areas will indeed continue to drop in home prices. But it occurred to me that there may be other things one might consider before officially putting off buying a home for a year. For example, have you seen what mortgage rates are at these days? They’re absurdly low! So I thought I’d briefly discuss some things that I have been reading up on this week regarding the issue of whether to buy now or to wait.

For starters, I want to discuss home buying as opposed to refinancing because refinancing is a slightly different beast than buying a home; Mainly because it heavily involves the equity (or lack thereof) in your property. That being said, there is a different train of thought that goes with when to refinance and when to wait.  And so, without further ado……….

James Hagerty of the Wall Street Journal reported this morning that Jay Brinkman, chief economist of the Mortgage Bankers Association, said “rates on 30-year fixed rate mortgages for borrowers with strong credit scores are likely to be in the range of roughly 4.6% to 4.75% at least through the summer.” This dip in rates came after last Wednesday’s announcement by the fed that they were committed to buying an additional $750 billion in mortgage backed securities (in addition to the 500 billion already committed). So this begs the question: How long can rates possibly stay this low? Peter Thompson of Illinois Mortgage Rates and News wrote a great, in depth article on this and he goes into the three schools of thoughts on what will happen going forward:

1. “The Fed buying will push rates steadily lower, possibly into the mid to low 4s. This is the view you hear in the media.” He goes on to say, ” This may happen, but it will take a lot more than just the Fed buying to get rates this low, and with lenders still near capacity, they are keeping more of the profit for themselves instead of passing it along to consumers.”
2. “Rates will stay low, but closer to the range we are in now. This means rates will stay affordable longer, but may not go a lot lower.”
3. The law of unintended consequences kicks in and instead of rates dropping, fear of inflation and the devaluation of the dollar drives rates higher than they were before. There are a lot of inflation hawks out there, and I agree that down the road we are going to have to deal with inflation. But that is in the future.”

For #1 to happen, banks would need to start cranking out loans at a ridiculous rate, which most likely isn’t going to happen. And #3 may be in the cards, but not in the immediate future, so I, like Peter, think that #2 is the most likely result. So that’s good news for homebuyers looking to hold off buying for a little longer.

The bad news is, low rates don’t make getting the loans any easier. Banks have yet to loosen their grip on the lending guidelines that have been tightened almost to the point of strangulation after the sub-prime mortgage disaster. Only borrowers who can make sizable down payments, have plenty of assets, a steady job, and impeccable credit, are getting the loans at these low rates.

So even if you are waiting for a certain market to bottom out or mortgage rates to dip even further, it cannot hurt to look into the matters of financing now. That way, when you do wish to buy, you will know what you qualify for before looking to find that perfect home.

When the President came to California yesterday and announced that the state will receive $145 million to help communities hard-hit by the foreclosure crisis, I thought to myself, “$145 million? That’s pocket change.” I realized then, that with all the stimulus packages, and budgets plans, and financial talk that have been spattered about the news like a massive Pollock painting in the last few months, my perception of the actual worth of $145 million dollars had been greatly skewed. $145 million can go a long way, can’t it?

The funds, as the President said on Thursday, “will be used to purchase and rehabilitate vacant, foreclosed homes and resell them with affordable mortgages.” He goes on to add that the funds “will also provide mortgage assistance and rehabilitation loans for low-income and middle income families.” The program that generated these funds, “was created as part of the Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008, which permits state and local governments to purchase foreclosed homes at a discount and rehabilitate or redevelop them”, reports the Associated Press. “Additionally, funds will come from the massive stimulus package.” Who knows how much additional funding from the stimulus package will actually go towards California’s foreclosure problem, and who knows how far this money can go to do all the things that the program is intended to do.

After-all, according to the RealtyTrac research firm, there were filings for 80,775 foreclosures on California properties in February. Oooooowweeeee, that’s a fair bit of foreclosures. How much money are we getting again? Of course, that number is slightly skewed due to the foreclosure moratorium that took place starting at the end of November and ended towards the end of January. For those unaware, the moratorium basically just halted the foreclosure process for that time period in an effort to keep people in their homes during the holiday season. So during that time, the amount of foreclosure filings piled up. But now that it’s over, we’ve got a lot to deal with. It would be interesting to get a number on the average dollar amount that will be spent per foreclosure with this money and see how big of dent the $145 million can actually make.

But I don’t mean to sound like Debbie Downer. $145 million is a fair bit of money. And hopefully a nice chunk of the money that California gets from the stimulus package will help as well. And moreover, this money will certainly help rejuvenate some neighborhoods in the state, and any bit of progress that can be made to lessen the enormity of this foreclosure crisis is a damn good thing.

By Andrew Brentan

I don’t get it. I’m not going to complain by any means, but I don’t quite understand how the new home construction projections surged up 22% from January. Steven Bernard of the Associated Press reported this morning that, “The Commerce Department said new home construction rose to an annual rate of 583,000 in February from a revised 477,000 in January. Economists forecast construction would drop to a pace of around 450,000 units, according to Thomson Reuters. Building permits, a key measure of future activity, also rose unexpectedly.” Economists were predicting a 6% decrease, and suddenly there’s a 22% increase in projections? What gives?

I read articles this morning in damn near every major newspaper I could find and not one of them offered any possible explanation on this. Like I said, I’m not complaining. The markets of course, responded favorably to this report and even offset the concerning news that Nokia is laying off 1,700 workers. But my question is how, when there are record-breaking amounts of residential inventory on the market across the country, there is a sudden burst in desire to build more homes that are not being bought up any time soon?

Jeff Bater and Brian Blackstone of the Wall Street Journal may not have offered any explanation on the projection, but they did address my question/concern: “…some are wary a rebound in home construction will only add to the glut of inventories, particularly, new homes at higher prices-an especially tough sell in this market.” Yes gentlemen, I’m wary. Chew on these stats that they went on to rattle off: “Sales of new homes have fallen for six consecutive months through January and are down nearly 50% from January 2008, while inventories have ballooned to a supply of 13.3 months, which is driving prices lower and holding off would-be buyers.” And so I’ll pose the question again…what on earth made the projections of home construction rise 22% from last month? I feel like the Commerce Department is just playing with our emotions to build some confidence. Well, confidence with a healthy dose of skepticism…but as of today, it seems to be working.

By

Andrew Brentan

San Diego (Mira Mesa community)

Graphics by David Foster
ZIP: 92126
Metro area: San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, Calif.
Annual home sale increase: 119%
Fourth-quarter sales: 195
Median home price: $337,500
Median home price change: -13.2%
Nondistressed sales percentage: 48%

48 % de las ventas en este código postal son propiedades convencionales – No Foreclosure -; el ajuste en precio medio de vivienda es -13%. Estaremos tocando fondo? Nadie lo puede asegurar, pero este es un indicador interesante. Date la oportunidad de diversificar tu portafolio, invertir en un inmueble donde puedas vivir con tus afectos momentos inolvidables, proteger tus intereses y posicionarte para generar plusvalía en el próximo ciclo económico. La suerte se da cuando concurren en tiempo y espacio, la preparación y la oportunidad.

Publicado el BusinessWeek en línea Marzo 10 / 2009

619-370-7473
mmuniz@axiasd.com

A Call to Agents

My superiors, the President and CEO of Axia Real Estate Group in San Diego, have asked me to write a blog announcing that we have now expanded our business into Riverside County and that we are looking for agents to work in both Riverside and San Diego.  I said to them, “Superiors, with all do respect, this is not something to discuss on a blog. This is something to announce on the home page of the website or take out an ad in the Reader or SignOn SanDiego.”  As you can tell by the fact that I am indeed writing a blog on our business expansion, I did not win this argument. And so, without further ado, let me introduce to you, Team Aguilar of Axia Real Estate Group:

Under the direction and leadership of Carlos Aguilar (President), and Howard Blum (CEO), Axia Real Estate Group, Inc. has been helping buyers and sellers in the San Diego region for over a decade. Carlos loves using the line that he has “been in real estate longer then he would care to remember” which was voted by me, to be his most over-used line of 2008. But he has been at it for a long time — originally licensed in California in 1972. The bottom line is, the man knows everything there is to know about real estate in California and he’s a pleasure to work for and with. And even if he wasn’t the one paying my salary, I’d say the same thing.

So, now that Team Aguilar has expanded into Riverside, we are looking for experienced real estate agents to join our group and work both Riverside AND San Diego regions. Agents should be experienced, knowledgeable, and willing to follow up on leads. If you are interested, or have any questions, call Toll Free Number at (888) 317-1496 or email info@teamaguilar.com.

In this current economic slump, I have been hearing people speak optimistically of all the opportunities that present themselves in such times. “What opportunities?” I find myself asking and getting annoyed at their statements, which seems to make everything seem ok, when in fact there are many who are having a very difficult time. It’s like getting defecated on by a bird and having someone reassure you that it’s good luck.

Well, for some there are opportunities in the form of affordability. Company shares, business-operation expenses, and buying real estate are all areas that people and businesses are able to capitalize on. But for most people and businesses, this is a time not so much of opportunities, but for adjustments.

In the Southern California real estate world, a booming, ever-expanding, bottomless pit of wealth just a few years ago, companies and individuals have had to face the harsh reality of the aftermath of the biggest real-estate bubble bursting in the history of our economy. For many, their way of doing business was shattered as there were no longer willing buyers knocking on their doors, and sellers were being forced to sell their home for less than it was worth. But there are those that have experienced this type of market before, and it are these individuals and companies that have adjusted their way of doing business in order to weather this economic downturn.

Carlos Aguilar, president of Axia Real Estate Group, Inc. in San Diego, is one such individual who has successfully adjusted to this new marketplace by selling REO’s. Real Estate Owned (REO) are properties owned by a lender, usually a bank, who retained the property after an unsuccessful foreclosure auction. And with all the foreclosure taking place in Southern California, REOs have proven the most consistent way to get a paycheck as a real estate agent. Banks are in possession of huge amounts of properties that need to be sold, and they will outsource the duty of selling these homes to real estate agents such as Carlos. “When I saw that the market was changing and it would be providing REO business, we changed hats and got into it last year,” Carlos stated. And it has proved successful as currently Axia’s REO division, www.TeamAguilar.com is bringing in 80% of his business.

But simply “changing hats” isn’t an easy option for many.  The banks are unloading a lot of responsibility to those selling their REOs and they need to be certain their assets are in the hands of people with experience.  Carlos obtained his experience selling REO’s in the early 90’s amidst the Savings and Loan Crisis and economic recession “Most companies involved [in selling REOs] that are having success know people in the industry. The REO industry seems to be fairly tight and the relationships I had in the past working for other operations are the big reason why I am getting business today.” And it’s not just experience that is required to sell REOs. It’s an entirely different beast than the average real estate transaction.

In addition to the usual marketing and negotiating required in a real estate deal, selling REOs involve other, less glamorous tasks. Frequently homes are left in horrible conditions and intense cleaning is required commonly costing upwards of $2000 to $3000. Ordering and maintaining utilities, managing evictions and re-keying properties, filling out the tedious and redundant Broker Price Opinions (more information on BPO’s search “Newsstand” at www.car.org), and keeping the banks or asset managers informed and happy. “Every bank requires different things, and every bank requires a sea of paperwork” Carlos adds regarding the downsides of REO work. “It’s by no means the most glamorous side of real estate, but in times such as these, we would be hurting for business without it.”

And so, depending on how one looks at things, transitioning from being a regular real estate agent to selling REOs might be a type of opportunity that Carlos and others in his field are taking advantage of, but this is an opportunity that is brought on by necessity and not a hope to strike it rich. As most of us are forced to position ourselves to weather the storm ahead, it is important to simply make the adjustments in our life and business necessary to get through these times. And who knows, maybe an opportunity is waiting to present itself to you.

Andrew Brentan is a contributor to Team Aguilar’s blog.